Ukraine: Lies and Realities
Separating Facts from Emotions
I will start by admitting that I’m emotional when it comes to Ukraine and Russia’s full-scale invasion and abuses of the Ukrainian people. As a Jewish refugee from the USSR, my heart tears apart at what’s going on. In a “discussion” with a friend of my husband’s online, I dropped the F-bomb, some other choice terms, and several photographs of the genocide and other atrocities the Russians have committed in Ukraine after he scoffed at a comparison to the Holocaust and claimed to have been advocating for peace?
I am a child of Holocaust survivors. I was born in Ukraine. I had a few things to say.
“You call this ‘peace'?” I countered.
“What about this?”
“Maybe this?”
“Or how about this?”
Needless to say, my ire was up, and my emotions were raw.
“It’s horrible, but still not the Holocaust,” he stubbornly replied, and proudly stated his support for the President of the United States and his meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky yesterday, which ended in an unmitigated disaster.
The meeting was nearly an hour long, and you should watch it before commenting on anything regarding this issue.
I will not comment on the self-serving “If I were President, you would not have gone through what you went through” stuff. Fact is, Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 and illegally annexed Crimea. Moscow then supported the separatists in Eastern Ukraine, and did so throughout the remainder of the Obama administration and during the four years of the first Trump administration. Trump focused on Iran and Venezuela “maximum pressure” campaigns, as well he should have, but he did nothing about Russia, so let’s not pretend here.
What I do want to do is comment on the various lies, half-truths, misinformation, and disinformation that came out of this meeting. I’m going to attempt to do so without emotion, relying on what I know having worked where I did for years, and what I’ve seen, as well as sources from all corners of the political spectrum.
The Fisking
Trump to a reporter: I’m not aligned with Putin. I’m not aligned with anybody. I’m aligned with the United States of America. And for the good of the world. I’m aligned with the world. And I want to get this thing over with. You see the hatred he’s got for Putin. It’s very tough for me to make a deal with that kind of hate. He’s got tremendous hatred. And I understand that. But I can tell you the other side isn’t exactly in love with him either.
So it’s not a question of alignment. I’m aligned with the world. I want to get the thing set. I’m aligned with Europe. I want to see if we can get this thing done. You want me to be tough? I can be tougher than any human being you’ve ever seen. I’d be so tough. But you’re never going to get a deal that way. So that’s the way it goes.
He may or may not be consciously aligned with Putin; I’m not in the habit of assessing mindset because I’m not a mindreader. However, I’m seeing a significant lack of balance between what the President is demanding of Russia and what he’s demanding of Ukraine.
Let’s remember that Ukraine is the country that was attacked. Let’s remember that Ukraine had roughly 20 percent of its land illegally occupied and annexed by Russia. Let’s remember that Russia has kidnapped and “russified” thousands of Ukrainian children, for which the International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for both Russian President Putin and his Commissioner for Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova.
The President, after yesterday’s disastrous White House meeting, demanded an “immediate ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine and Zelensky to make peace or lose American support.
Did he make the same demand of Russia? Not that I’ve seen. Trump alludes to “very good talks” with Russia, but if any demands were made, Russia is not budging.
Putin for years has publicly questioned Ukraine’s right to exist as a sovereign nation.
Russia continues to demand that Ukraine cannot be part of NATO - a defensive alliance that has never posed a threat to Russia, and one that even Putin has speculated about joining at one point. Putin’s claim of having NATO on Russia’s borders being the ultimate reason for his invasion could only be believed by the most ignorant.
Fact is that Russia has had NATO on its borders since the alliance was created.
In case you wondered, the countries in blue are NATO nations. Notice where Alaska is and its proximity to Russia. Also note that the Baltic nations—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—have been NATO members since 2004, with nary a peep of protest from Putin.
Russia has given no sign that it will accept anything but its original demands. If you don’t believe it, here’s a video of Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov confirming it. It’s translated, and when Lavrov mentions the constitution, he means that the territories Russia has invaded and illegally annexed have been enshrined in Russia’s constitution after the full-scale invasion.
Kremlin spokesman Peskov a few days ago also confirmed that Russia will not settle for anything less than its original demands.
"The territories that have become subjects of the Russian Federation, which are inscribed in our country's constitution, are an inseparable part of our country," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
"This is undeniable and non-negotiable," he said during a daily briefing.
But somehow it’s Zelensky that doesn’t want peace? Somehow it’s Ukraine that must give up its territories, compromise its sovereignty, and count on Russia to not invade again without any security guarantees?
Vice President JD Vance: I will respond to this. So look, for four years in the United States of America, we had a president who stood up at press conferences and talked tough about Vladimir Putin. And then Putin invaded Ukraine and destroyed a significant chunk of the country. The path to peace and the path to prosperity is maybe engaging in diplomacy. We tried the pathway of Joe Biden, of thumping our chest and pretending that the president of the United States’ words mattered more than the president of the United States’ actions.
What makes America a good country is America engaging in diplomacy. That’s what President Trump is doing.
I was criticizing the Biden administration’s weak approach long before Trump took office, so I don’t disagree that the gradual approach didn’t work. The problem is that Vance seems to think that Trump’s type of diplomacy is going to fix this. What kind of diplomacy?
Siding with Russia on the world stage against the free world and failing to call on Russia to end the hostilities?
Trying to remove language that accurately and objectively names Russia as the aggressor from a UN resolution?
Holding “diplomatic” talks with the Russian side, while sidelining the country that’s actually under attack by Russia? By ending Russia’s international isolation without any Russian steps toward peace?
What kind of diplomacy is this?
Vance: Mr. President, Mr. President, with respect. I think it’s disrespectful for you to come to the Oval Office and try to litigate this in front of the American media. Right now, you guys are going around and forcing conscripts to the front lines because you have man power problems. You should be thanking the president for trying to bring an end to this conflict.
Who invited the media? Instead of having substantive talks in the Oval, the White House hand-picked a bunch of journalists, somehow allowing a reporter from Kremlin outlet TASS to briefly enter the event before tossing the likely Russian agent out.
Litigating this issue in front of the American media wasn’t Zelensky’s choice. It was Trump’s.
And speaking of forcing conscripts into the meat grinder…
Who is it that’s sending Russia’s youngest conscripts to their deaths in Ukraine? It isn’t Zelensky, whom the Biden administration tried to force to lower the age of conscription from 25 to 18.
Zelensky: First of all, during the war, everybody has problems, even you. But you have nice ocean and don’t feel now, but you will feel it in the future.
Trump: You don’t know that.
Zelensky: God bless, you will not have a war.
Trump: Don’t tell us what we’re going to feel. We’re trying to solve a problem. Don’t tell us what we’re going to feel.
Zelensky: I’m not telling you.
Trump: Because you’re in no position to dictate that. Remember this: You’re in no position to dictate what we’re going to feel. We’re going to feel very good.
I’m not sure whether this is a language/translation barrier or the US President just being intentionally intransigent, but Zelensky wasn’t telling the United States what to feel. He was telling Trump that the United States will feel the effects of this war in the future, whereas right now, we’re an ocean away.
Trump: You’re playing cards. You’re playing cards. You’re gambling with the lives of millions of people. You’re gambling with World War III. You’re gambling with World War III. And what you’re doing is very disrespectful to the country, this country, that’s backed you far more than a lot of people said they should have.
I’ve written about the fear of escalation during the Biden administration. This is abject cowardice. The Russians have been threatening dire consequences for years, and they’ve done nothing to back up their threats.
Putin a few days after the invasion began ordered his military to put Russia’s nuclear deterrence forces on high alert. This wasn’t in response to the West’s ostensible “escalation.” This was in anticipation that the West would do something in response to Russia’s aggression.
After US Secretary of State Blinken met with Ukrainian president Zelensky in April of that year, Russia again threatened nuclear action by claiming there was a “real danger” of World War III. Putin also issued a similar “veiled” threat that month. “If anyone sets out to intervene in the current events from the outside and creates unacceptable threats for us that are strategic in nature, they should know that our response … will be lightning-fast… We have all the tools for this, that no one else can boast of having. We won’t boast about it. We’ll use them, if needed. And I want everyone to know that.”
Similar threats have been issued by members of the Duma periodically throughout that year and in 2023 and 2024, as well as by many times an obviously drunk Dmitry Medvedev.
But what about gratitude?
Vance: Have you said ‘thank you’ once this entire meeting? No. In this entire meeting, have you said ‘thank you’? You went to Pennsylvania and campaigned for the opposition in October. Offer some words of appreciation for the United States of America and the president who is trying to save your country.
As a matter of fact, Zelensky has thanked the United States more than 30 times since the war began, including after yesterday’s encounter.
Zelensky: Mr. President, we are staying in our country, staying strong, from the very beginning of the war, we’ve been alone, and we are thankful. I said thanks in this cabinet, and only in this cabinet.
How much more gratitude does Vance want?
Trump: I want a cease-fire, because you’ll get a cease-fire faster than an agreement.
How many ceasefire violations has Russia committed?
Ceasefire violations rose in eastern Ukraine as Russia unilaterally massed troops along its border with Ukraine and in Crimea. Between July and November of 2020, the Special Monitoring Mission reported approximately 600 ceasefire violations per month. That number increased to around 2,800 monthly violations between December and January 2021. And, now, in the first 25 days of April, the SMM reported more than 6,600 total ceasefire violations.
Minsk agreements? Violated.
Russia’s self-declared ceasefire for Orthodox Christmas in 2023? Violated.
Numerous major ceasefire violations during the past 10 years? Russia did it.
So trusting Russia with a ceasefire strikes me as foolish at the very least. And yet, here we are.
Trump: All I can say is this: He might have broken deals with Obama and Bush, and he might have broken them with Biden. He did. Maybe. Maybe he didn’t. I don’t know what happened. But he didn’t break them with me. He wants to make a deal. I don’t know if he can make a deal.
The war in Eastern Ukraine and Russia’s support for the separatists did not end when Trump entered office. It continued unabated without so much an acknowledgment from the first Trump administration.
When I did a search for Russia on OFAC’s website to look at the first Trump administration’s designations, I found 74 results.
This included some election-interference designations of Andriy Derkach and his buddies in early 2021; the designation of Chechen warlord Kadyrov that month for human rights violations; some cyber sanctions; designations of Russia-backed Crimean officials and railroad company linking Crimea to Russia; and several Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) designations.
The United States levied nearly 2,700 designations agianst Russian individuals and entities prior to the full-scale invasion in 2022. That includes those issued during the Obama administration and throughout the four years of the first Trump administration.
Biden, for all the fumbling and slow-walking, issued nearly 21,700 designations against Russia since the all-out war began.
So if Trump is implying here that he was somehow tough on Russia, the numbers say otherwise.
There are other falsehoods that are rearing their ugly heads again, many of which I have addressed on this site previously.
Ukraine is laundering our tax dollars.
Ukraine is too corrupt to get our help.
Vladimir Putin wants peace, and if we escalate, he will bomb us.
Zelensky and his wife are using our money to buy luxuries.
My favorite recent claim is that somehow the United States has given Ukraine $350 billion. Thankfully, the intrepid Financial Times has punctured that basketball of falsehoods with a very large needle.
The bottom line
I have tried in this article to remain factually objective. I fully acknowledge my own emotions and biases when it comes to recent events. That’s why I’ve tried to include a variety of sources, including right and left media, think tanks, and international organizations. I’ve tried to give you a 360-degree view of the claims and the facts when it comes to the situation in Ukraine.
Yes, Ukraine is running low on troops, and the Ukrainian people are dying. Yes, a lot of the success that Ukraine is having in this war is because of allies like the United States. No one has denied that, including Zelensky, who understands that having the United States as an ally is critical to Ukraine’s survival.
That does not, however, mean that Zelensky should accept a bad deal forced on him by an administration that seems to favor Russia.
If Trump wants a deal, he should be 100 percent open about what he and Putin have discussed and include Ukraine and the EU in any conversations with Russia. Ukraine and the EU are the ones most affected by this war, as Zelensky noted. So if Trump wants to get it done, he needs to stop showboating and start working.
Trump has never forgiven Zelenskyy for not giving him dirt on Hunter Biden in 2019. It’s now payback time.
JD Vance hates Ukraine, once telling Steve Bannon on a podcast “To tell the truth, I don’t care what happens to Ukraine.”
Toss in a little Tucker Carlson devotion to Putin along with Don Jr’s malign influence, and there was no way this was going to go positively for Zelenskyy.
But it sure made for good TV, didn’t it?
I'm not impressed with Trump, but I am actually less impressed with Zelensky. I think he was needlessly confrontational even earlier in the meeting and then he failed to make the critical arguments when poked by Vance. I get that this was live TV and he didn't have aides to assist, but that's actually part of the fuck up. He should not have done that on live TV but waited until they were in private.
Anyway, I still think Ukraine will win assuming Europe puts its money where its mouth is - https://open.substack.com/pub/ombreolivier/p/can-ukraine-win-now?r=7yrqz&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web