The Fear of Escalation

The Risk of War

Image by JaredSMassey from Pixabay

There have been rumblings of late that the Biden administration is taking us into World War III by finally authorizing the use of US long-range missiles in Russia by Ukraine. This limited move should have happened a long time ago, but nonetheless, some are complaining that Biden is escalating the conflict with Russia. The move comes after Russia deployed thousands of North Korean troops to Ukraine to supplement its war effort.

So let’s take a look at the facts. Is Biden’s move an escalation? Or is it merely a response to continued escalations of violence by Russia?

And more importantly, will this latest move involve the United States in a third global war?

Is Biden’s move an escalation?

Allowing Ukraine to use the US Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) was a response to Russia’s deployment of North Korean troops.

Courtesy of WikiMedia Commons

This isn’t the first time Russia has brought in foreign troops to plus up its numbers in Ukraine.

• A year ago, the Cuban foreign ministry uncovered a human-trafficking ring that recruited and shipped Cubans to fight in Ukraine. Cuba, a close ally of Russia, was not happy about this development and made clear its dissatisfaction by informing the world that it was NOT part of Russia’s invasion.

• Nepal also discovered a similar effort by Russia last year. Nepalese authorities arrested 10 individuals, accusing them of extorting large sums of money from unemployed youths. promising them travel visas and then illegally coercing them into being recruited into the Russian army. At least six Nepali citizens had died on the front lines in Ukraine at the time.

• Same thing happened in India in March. Indian authorities incovered a network of agents sending people to fight for Russia in Ukraine under the pretext of giving them jobs. I will note that this tactic is very similar to how organized crime groups in Asia operate, luring desperate Indian citizens with promises of high-paying jobs, and then forcing them to work in scam compounds, committing pig butchering schemes.

So here’s Russia, supplementing its savagery in Ukraine by sending foreign troops into the meat grinder, while the United States and our partners strengthened sanctions, promised Ukraine more aid, and little else, especially since US aid has been slow-walked by the Biden administration.

Tell me again, who’s escalating?

And today, we have reports that Russia is enlisting Yemeni mercenaries to fight in Ukraine.

These recruits were brought to Russia through a covert human trafficking operation, where they were promised high-paying jobs and Russian citizenship. However, upon arrival in Russia, they were forcibly conscripted into the Russian military and sent to the frontlines in Ukraine.

These are actual Huthis - designated foreign terrorists. And Russia is sending them to fight in Ukraine.

Tell me again, who’s escalating?

Let’s also remember that Russia has been launching hybrid attacks against the United States, against the West, and against Ukraine long before Biden gave the authorization to fire ATACMS into Russia.

• Let’s remember the “little green men,” who were deployed to attack and illegally annex the Crimea region of Ukraine.

• Let’s remember Russia’s meddling in US elections. This is not about 2016 and Trump. Russian disinformation targeted both the right and the left, and the declassified intelligence community assessment (ICA), as well as the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence agreed on this issue.

• Let’s remember Russia’s interference in both Moldovan and Georgian elections.

• Let’s remember Russia’s efforts to meddle in EU elections.

• Let’s remember Russia’s attempt to stage an assassination of the CEO of Germany’s Rheinmetall.

• Let’s remember that it’s Russia that has been hiring thugs across Europe to commit acts of sabotage by offering them payments on the Telegram messaging service.

• And let’s not forget that Putin announced he was lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons in September - before Ukraine received limited authorization to strike Russian targets. He only made it official by signing a decree last week, pretending that this was a response to US “escalation.”

In fact, Russia has been issuing nuclear threats since it began its full-scale invasion.

Putin a few days after the invasion began ordered his military to put Russia’s nuclear deterrence forces on high alert. This wasn’t in response to the West’s ostensible “escalation.” This was in anticipation that the West would do something in response to Russia’s aggression.

After US Secretary of State Blinken met with Ukrainian president Zelensky in April of that year, Russia again threatened nuclear action by claiming there was a “real danger” of World War III. Putin also issued a similar “veiled” threat that month. “If anyone sets out to intervene in the current events from the outside and creates unacceptable threats for us that are strategic in nature, they should know that our response … will be lightning-fast… We have all the tools for this, that no one else can boast of having. We won’t boast about it. We’ll use them, if needed. And I want everyone to know that.”

Similar threats have been issued by members of the Duma periodically throughout that year and in 2023 and 2024, as well as by many times an obviously drunk Dmitry Medvedev.

A Google search for “Medvedev threatens nuclear” brought up 23 pages of results.

So again, it’s not like it’s the first time Russia has threatened World War III.

And the Biden administration has been nothing if not hesitant to respond. When it finally did a few days ago, the Russians lost their minds. After nearly three years of war, they don’t appear to have expected that Biden and his National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan would grow a set strong enough to authorize further use of US weapons against Russia.

Will these threats result in World War III?

Given Russia’s continued escalation, given Russia’s continued “World War III” threats, and given its reaction to the partial relaxation of restrictions on the use of western weapons systems inside Russia issued in response to Russia’s assault in May on the Kharkiv region, I assess this is more Russian hot air and that the wailing and terrified soiling of panties is ridiculous.

Courtesy of X.

Courtesy of X.

Courtesy of X

These fears are silly, given the assessed state of Russia’s nuclear capability. The Russians were never well-known for their maintenance habits, and the state of its nuclear arsenal is questionable, according to the Robert Lansing Institute for Global Threats and Democratic Studies.

Russia occasionally announces verifying the readiness of intercontinental ballistic missiles, as their service life has long exceeded all laid standards, in some cases.

With up to 46 missiles available, R-36M2 Satan can deliver more than 30% of all Russian nuclear warheads. Their production ended with the Soviet collapse, and their maximum life ended in 2005, though it was “extended” then, saying the missiles were allegedly fit for use up to 2020.

The oldest missile was shot off to test the real readiness, and if it fulfilled its mission, the operating life continued. If not, another one was launched and so on, until the task was completed.

But these missiles are relatively new if to compare to the UR-100N (RS-18), with up to 20-24 missiles still in silos, as the latter of which was produced before 1985.

The readiness of Topol ballistic missile also raises questions. It was put into service in the 80s, then upgraded to Topol-M in mid-90s. 18 Soviet Topols are still in service, and 78 Russian Topol-Ms were produced before 2011. The rest of the ground-based nuclear triad is based on 170 SS-27 (Yars), an updated version of the Soviet Topol, put into service in 2009.

The Russians are, if nothing else, good at messaging, and many are falling for these threats hook, line, and sinker.

I’d suggest examining closely the history of these threats, and putting politics aside instead of claiming that “Biden is going to start World War III” before leaving office.

Biden is doing no such thing. He’s merely giving Ukraine some limited authority to use the weapons it has to defend its country and its people against an enemy that has continued to target energy infrastructure and murder Ukrainian civilians, and has recently fired an intermediate-range (non-nuclear) ballistic missile at Dnipro.

Courtesy of Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on X

The real escalation has been propagated by Russia, and it’s high time we helped Ukraine really respond.