Really well-done article. And a great example of sound, well-researched, OPEN-SOUCE analysis. My compliments to the author (she was obviously well-trained in a previous life).
It is a good strategy, but implementation is going to be hard, due to the proliferation of 3rd party operatives that are willing to do anything for the right price. And AIS, among other tracking 'systems' is easy to spoof, fake, or turn off. It would take a concerted effort against RUS, DPRK, China, Iran, and the smaller 'third world' players to actually shut the oil shipments down/restrict them/get them in compliance. You mentioned Gabon, for example. They had a coup in late 2023, their oil reserves are minimal, and expected to run out within a year, so they are scrambling for $$$, which the Russians are 'happy' to provide for 'services'...
Really well-done article. And a great example of sound, well-researched, OPEN-SOUCE analysis. My compliments to the author (she was obviously well-trained in a previous life).
That would be the only real deterrent I can think of, but not really in my lane.
It is a good strategy, but implementation is going to be hard, due to the proliferation of 3rd party operatives that are willing to do anything for the right price. And AIS, among other tracking 'systems' is easy to spoof, fake, or turn off. It would take a concerted effort against RUS, DPRK, China, Iran, and the smaller 'third world' players to actually shut the oil shipments down/restrict them/get them in compliance. You mentioned Gabon, for example. They had a coup in late 2023, their oil reserves are minimal, and expected to run out within a year, so they are scrambling for $$$, which the Russians are 'happy' to provide for 'services'...