How much of what we're seeing is non-custodial? Or does anybody really know? And yes, they are going to do 'whatever' they can to get around any sanctions. If it gets worse, I would actually not be surprised if the Russian 'mafia' started taking action to 'force' people to help them. They do have a reputation for that!
Not sure it matters as far as non-custodial wallets go. It sounds like Qifa is providing the custodial service, much like Coinbase or whatever, but I don’t have details.
Russia is already using organized crime to achieve geopolitical goals. They have for decades. The question is , when will it become less profitable for them to stop trying to evade sanctions? When will the risk be too much for the facilitators, and when will it become more expensive for the Russians to continue developing new techniques?
Minor gripe. Russia is only one of the largest economies in the world if you trust Russian statistics. If you believe Russian GDP stats (and if you do I have a bridge to sell) it is still #11 in the world in nominal GDP. But given how the Russian state has banned publishing of so many other economic statistics I'm not at all sure I believe that number. Plus the proportion of GDP that is accounted for by state spending vs private sector spending has massively increased. Overall the Russian economy is in the toilet.
However the major point stands. Crypto isn't going to handle even a relatively small national economy's import/export transactions well and Russia needs to export oil/gas and import technology as well as luxuries for the oligarchs so there's going to be a lot of transactions. On the positive side (for Russians) allowing legal use of crypto is going to make it easier for the ransomware gangs to cash out their profits, so there's that
Well, this is why I wrote “one of the” largest economies in the world. It’s difficult to calculate when real statistics are locked down and screwed by the pivot to a war economy. It was the 11th a couple of years ago, and most statistics say it’s still true, but I would submit the lack of transparency makes that number difficult to confirm.
I would also submit that it’s already easy for the ransomware gangs to cash out. They operate with relative impunity in Russia, as long as they don’t target Russian assets.
How much of what we're seeing is non-custodial? Or does anybody really know? And yes, they are going to do 'whatever' they can to get around any sanctions. If it gets worse, I would actually not be surprised if the Russian 'mafia' started taking action to 'force' people to help them. They do have a reputation for that!
Not sure it matters as far as non-custodial wallets go. It sounds like Qifa is providing the custodial service, much like Coinbase or whatever, but I don’t have details.
Russia is already using organized crime to achieve geopolitical goals. They have for decades. The question is , when will it become less profitable for them to stop trying to evade sanctions? When will the risk be too much for the facilitators, and when will it become more expensive for the Russians to continue developing new techniques?
Damn good questions, and no answers here. I’m just afraid there will be a trailer of bodies from the financial world.
That doesn’t sound reassuring!
Minor gripe. Russia is only one of the largest economies in the world if you trust Russian statistics. If you believe Russian GDP stats (and if you do I have a bridge to sell) it is still #11 in the world in nominal GDP. But given how the Russian state has banned publishing of so many other economic statistics I'm not at all sure I believe that number. Plus the proportion of GDP that is accounted for by state spending vs private sector spending has massively increased. Overall the Russian economy is in the toilet.
However the major point stands. Crypto isn't going to handle even a relatively small national economy's import/export transactions well and Russia needs to export oil/gas and import technology as well as luxuries for the oligarchs so there's going to be a lot of transactions. On the positive side (for Russians) allowing legal use of crypto is going to make it easier for the ransomware gangs to cash out their profits, so there's that
Well, this is why I wrote “one of the” largest economies in the world. It’s difficult to calculate when real statistics are locked down and screwed by the pivot to a war economy. It was the 11th a couple of years ago, and most statistics say it’s still true, but I would submit the lack of transparency makes that number difficult to confirm.
I would also submit that it’s already easy for the ransomware gangs to cash out. They operate with relative impunity in Russia, as long as they don’t target Russian assets.