Kursk Incursion
I love the smell of Russian tears in the morning!
I have never made a secret of my disdain for Russia, for its invasion of Ukraine, and for its subsequent savagery and hypocrisy. My glee at Russia’s desperation of late should be no surprise to any reader of this site.
The White House has imposed more pain on Russia by assessing that the country has fully pivoted to a wartime economy and naming any entity or individual designated pursuant to EO 14024—Russia foreign malign activities—as part of Russia’s military-industrial sector. The assessment and addition of secondary sanctions risk to the thousands of entities and individuals sanctioned under EO 14024 means that any foreign financial institution that transacts with these thousands of entities can be subject to US secondary sanctions. That also means the foreign financial institutions that are designated pursuant the US secondary sanctions authority—EO 14114—will be cut off from the US dollar and the global financial system.
Despite complaints from western insurers about the $60 per-barrel price cap on Russian oil imposed by the G7 countries in late 2022 about the regulations being “unenforceable,” Russia is expending a lot of resources on evading the price cap, which means fewer resources are going to their savages in Ukraine. After all, they need to purchase vessels, register them with the fewer and fewer flag states that are willing to issue flags willy-nilly, pay for shell and front companies to obscure ownership and management of these ships, and insure them with the few handfuls of companies that are still willing to cover them.
The United States and our partners are issuing stark warnings to countries like Türkiye, China, and the UAE to stop facilitating Russian aggression or face dire consequences, which include loss of access to the global financial system and US correspondent accounts.
As a result, Russia has rushed to pass a law to allow businesses to use cryptocurrenices in international trade. As I wrote last week, this is interesting news coming out of Russia and a stunning reversal from the central bank, considering that it proposed banning cryptocurrency transactions in the country and the mining of digital assets just two years ago.
When Russia reverses its ban on crypto, which it most certainly implemented to give the Kremlin more control over financial transactions, as a way to get around sanctions, you know they’re having an effect!
And now there’s Kursk!
Those of us who have been watching this war from the comfort of our armchairs, have been angered at the West tying Ukraine’s hands, forbidding Kyiv to attack deep inside Russian territory for fear of escalation. The Biden administration has limited Ukraine’s use of US-provided weapons and only recently allowed Kyiv to strike back at Russia on the Russian side of the border near the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, against concentrations of Russian troops and Russian artillery pieces. A US official also recently said that "We've never told them they can't shoot down a Russian airplane over Russian soil that's coming to attack them."
Well…
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has confirmed that Ukraine is now fighting inside Russia, after Ukrainian troops staged a surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region. The reaction on X to the surprise attack has been nothing short of glorious!
The incursion has been so successful, that Russia is now crying to the United Nations and asking the international community to condemn Ukraine’s invasion.
The United States just shrugged.
“There’s been no changes in our policy approaches," according to White House national security spokesman John Kirby when asked about the Kursk incursion. "They’re using it in an area where we had said before that they could use U.S. weapons for cross-border strikes. The end goal here is to help Ukraine defend itself.”
In a statement, Russia called Ukraine’s ground incursion "barbaric" and said it made no military sense.
Did committing genocide in Bucha make military sense? How about the mass murder and torture of civilians there?
How about intentionally bombing a theater in Mariupol that was marked with the word “ДЕТИ” or “CHILDREN” to denote the presence of children inside? Did that make military sense?
How about bombing a maternity hospital and a childrens hospital filled with young cancer patients?
Russia claimed that their targets have been “military facilities.” If that’s the case, their aim is about as incompetent as stormtroopers in a Star Wars movie.
Let’s not kid ourselves. Russia continues to bomb civilian infrastructure, murder children, kidnap Ukrainian kids and even rape and torture them! No one but the most evil supporters of Moscow is weeping for Russians caught up in the Kursk incursion! Especially, as Russians cheered the murder and torture of Ukrainian civilians during the past two years.
Remember this Russian woman who told her husband to go ahead and rape Ukrainian women while he was deployed?
In a telephone conversation intercepted by the Ukrainian security service in the spring of 2022, Olga Bykovska was heard apparently giving her 28-year-old husband Roman Bykovskyi permission to commit sexual assault.
“So, go ahead and rape Ukrainian women, right? And don't tell me anything. Of course?” a laughing Bykovska was recorded as saying.
“Do rape and do not tell you anything?... Is it possible, right?” her husband replied.
“Yes, I allow it. Just be careful!” the woman continued, in an apparent reference to the use of condoms.
“Okay,” Bykovskyi replied.
In other words, Russia’s plaintive cries about being “victimized” by a much smaller country, which it invaded, whose territories it illegally annexed, whose civilians it tortured, raped, and murdered, and whose property it looted, are being serenaded by the world’s smallest violin.
It’s about time the world got serious with Russia
Untie Ukraine’s hands and let them use western weapons to strike at targets inside Russia.
Start using authorities granted by EO 14114 to designate foreign financial institutions that are transacting with Russia’s military-industrial sector, instead of just threatening secondary sanctions.
Start penalizing domestic companies that are not doing sufficient due diligence on end-users of their restricted technologies and allowing components to end up in Russian offensive missiles.
Stop warning countries that act as transshipment points for restricted goods and technologies and forwarding them to Russia, and start holding them accountable. According to the Yermak-McFaul International Working Group on Russian Sanctions, restricted goods primarily flow through China, Türkiye, and the UAE, “with other nations such as Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and the Kyrgyz Republic also witnessing significant increases in imports from EU and coalition countries, likely destined for Russia.”
Enough talk about confiscating frozen Russian assets abroad. Just do it. Especially now that the REPO Act has been passed, and the US Treasury has mandated financial institutions at home to report any frozen Russian assets.
The disclosure is required under a new law passed by Congress earlier this year known as the REPO Act, which gives the U.S. government the authority to seize Russian state assets held by U.S. banks, with the goal of eventually selling them and giving those funds to Ukraine. While the vast bulk of Russian assets are held in Europe, it is estimated that the U.S. banking system holds as much as $6 billion in Russian assets in trust.
Start sanctioning more Russian commodities. Moscow is figuring out novel ways to get profits from its liquefied natural gas (LNG), including channeling its LNG into Belarussian fertilizers, which the EU has been hesitant to ban because of fears about food insecurity. Lower the price cap on Russian oil to $30 per barrel and impose harsh penalties on those companies, financial institutions, vessels, ship operators, and anyone else who helps Russia evade this restriction.
The Yermak-McFaul Working Group also has some good advice about limiting Russia’s access to software that allows it to update and maintain its energy infrastructure. And since Russia has pivoted to a wartime economy, any and all infrastructure can be considered part of Russia’s military-industrial complex.
Given Russia’s historical use of energy profits to underwrite military operations, a preventative measure is crucial to inhibit future leverage in the energy markets. Therefore, the sanctions coalition should restrict Russian access to Western oil and gas software applications hosted outside of Russia, thus limiting its future energy profits.
Start strictly enforcing strategic trade controls. Start issuing harsh punishments for those who willfully violate them and allow Russia to access critical technologies and machinery to continue its war.
Ukraine is doing the hard work. They are fighting the war NATO would fight if Moscow is allowed to win over Kyiv.
We should help as much as we can.
Kursk Invasion: Tucker Carlson hardest hit.
This situation is becoming more 'fluid' as they say, with the penetration into Kursk. IMHO, I don't believe the Russians ever even 'thought' anyone would actually come across the border after them.