My first thought was that this had to be a red flag, the way Putin was going on about Ukraine being behind the attack. He's looking for an excuse to ramp up his attacks on Ukraine, and I am afraid he may decide to use a tactical nuke to move things along. All he would need is the "justification", real or imagined. At least that's my first thought on all of this.
But applying the KISS principle here, ISIS-K has claimed responsibility, and there was pretty specific intelligence that indicated this group was up to something like this. It was a warning put out by the US informing Americans not to go to any concerts in Moscow for the time being. I'm sure that we also shared more information about this with the Russian government.
But Putin saw it as America trying to 'destabilize' Russia by spreading fear, and he chose to ignore the warning. Now, he probably wishes that nobody remembers he was warned two weeks ago...
I seem to recall that both Putin and Trump claimed that they destroyed ISIS years ago. So it's not surprising to hear both of them deny that ISIS was involved in this.
I know you mean "false flag." In any case, ISIS hates the Russians, hates the Iranians, hates pretty much everyone, and the Germans and the French apparently also were on ISIS's list. It's not unlike the Kremlin to exploit the murder of hundreds of innocent victims to further its narrative against Ukraine and justify its savagery there.
I 'think' you are probably right, but I find it odd that any of them were 'captured'... That has not been the norm where ISIS (K) or any other ISIS force was involved. I wonder if they 'sublet' so to speak the attack?
I wouldn’t say that. There were tons of ISIS fighters captured in Syria. Hudayfah al Yemeni was captured last year. Some ISIS operatives were captured in Israel and a few more in Germany this year.
It happens. That said, I’m surprised it wasn’t a suicide operation. There was no way they were getting out of Moscow after THAT.
That's true too, but the ones recently in Israel, planning an attack on the Knesset and ones caught in Germany weren't. I'm not saying they ALWAYS get caught by any stretch, but it does happen. And these guys were apparently just pawns being used by ISIS too, so probably much more easily caught.
Yes, agree. These were pawns not the hard-core converted idealistic suicide bomber that you would see in Afghanistan or Pakistan. ISIS-K Recruiting poverty stricken Central Asians is not a difficult task given the work mobility back-and-forth from Russia. However, ISIS-K ability to coordinate this inside of Russia, clearly indicates sophistication and active cells in Russia.
If this happens again within the next 6 to 12 months, that will be a huge problem for Putin
I figure if it was ISIS-K it would have been a suicide operation, for that reason alone. Admittedly, I haven't been tracking the overseas stuff that much in the last year or so.
Also, apparently the perps were Tajiks with zero language skills. It's entirely possible that ISIS is evolving its attack methods, putting weapons in the paws of other nationals and instructing them to kill. Keeps their own fighters safe. *shrug*
Excellent professional analysis based on info available so far.
My first thought was that this had to be a red flag, the way Putin was going on about Ukraine being behind the attack. He's looking for an excuse to ramp up his attacks on Ukraine, and I am afraid he may decide to use a tactical nuke to move things along. All he would need is the "justification", real or imagined. At least that's my first thought on all of this.
But applying the KISS principle here, ISIS-K has claimed responsibility, and there was pretty specific intelligence that indicated this group was up to something like this. It was a warning put out by the US informing Americans not to go to any concerts in Moscow for the time being. I'm sure that we also shared more information about this with the Russian government.
But Putin saw it as America trying to 'destabilize' Russia by spreading fear, and he chose to ignore the warning. Now, he probably wishes that nobody remembers he was warned two weeks ago...
I seem to recall that both Putin and Trump claimed that they destroyed ISIS years ago. So it's not surprising to hear both of them deny that ISIS was involved in this.
I know you mean "false flag." In any case, ISIS hates the Russians, hates the Iranians, hates pretty much everyone, and the Germans and the French apparently also were on ISIS's list. It's not unlike the Kremlin to exploit the murder of hundreds of innocent victims to further its narrative against Ukraine and justify its savagery there.
I 'think' you are probably right, but I find it odd that any of them were 'captured'... That has not been the norm where ISIS (K) or any other ISIS force was involved. I wonder if they 'sublet' so to speak the attack?
I wouldn’t say that. There were tons of ISIS fighters captured in Syria. Hudayfah al Yemeni was captured last year. Some ISIS operatives were captured in Israel and a few more in Germany this year.
It happens. That said, I’m surprised it wasn’t a suicide operation. There was no way they were getting out of Moscow after THAT.
Yes, many instances of ISIS capture, but those instances are in theater of war, not target attacks like Crocus Center/Moscow.
That's true too, but the ones recently in Israel, planning an attack on the Knesset and ones caught in Germany weren't. I'm not saying they ALWAYS get caught by any stretch, but it does happen. And these guys were apparently just pawns being used by ISIS too, so probably much more easily caught.
Yes, agree. These were pawns not the hard-core converted idealistic suicide bomber that you would see in Afghanistan or Pakistan. ISIS-K Recruiting poverty stricken Central Asians is not a difficult task given the work mobility back-and-forth from Russia. However, ISIS-K ability to coordinate this inside of Russia, clearly indicates sophistication and active cells in Russia.
If this happens again within the next 6 to 12 months, that will be a huge problem for Putin
I figure if it was ISIS-K it would have been a suicide operation, for that reason alone. Admittedly, I haven't been tracking the overseas stuff that much in the last year or so.
Also, apparently the perps were Tajiks with zero language skills. It's entirely possible that ISIS is evolving its attack methods, putting weapons in the paws of other nationals and instructing them to kill. Keeps their own fighters safe. *shrug*
That’s the only thing that gives me pause.
Interestingly, I keep seeing claims that the ones who were captured say they were paid by unknowns.