The 28-point "Peace" Plan (UPDATED)
The Bad, the Badder, and the Really Ugly
A personal note before I begin my dissection of the latest 28-point “Peace” Plan that the United States is trying to forcefully impose on Ukraine. You can tell just by the first sentence that I assess this plan to be an abhorrent disaster, and I will tell you why.
But first… I want to thank my wonderful co-author Kim, who picked up the ball and ran with it, keeping this site active while I was recovering from surgery to eliminate breast cancer from my life.
A few weeks after starting a new role in the illicit finance space, I was diagnosed with breast cancer. Luckily, it was stage 0, and I opted not to mess around but rather just have a full mastectomy to eliminate the problem. So four weeks ago, I went under the knife, and three weeks ago, pathology cleared me. I’m cancer-free and recovering nicely. Yesterday, for the first time after surgery, I jogged 2.5 miles. Today, I ran. So, I think I’m doing quite well.
I decided to start writing again, since I’m no longer falling asleep every few hours as my body heals, and this is the perfect time, since a 28-point “plan for peace” was leaked this week after Trump’s special envoy for “peace” missions Steve Witkoff met with Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev.
UPDATE: There has been a lot of dis- and misinformation about this so-called “peace” plan during the past 24 hours. Secretary of State Marco Rubio went back and forth, allegedly first denying that the document was developed by the United States, claiming it was just a Russian “wish list,” and then, confirming that it was, in fact, a US document. The headdesking had reached concussion levels by the time I got through all the sturm and drang.
But here’s the more important development. Regardless of whether or not this plan was yet another US attempt to strongarm Ukraine into accepting Russia’s terms, the EU came up with a much better, less vague, and more fair plan.
Thanks to Kate from Kharkiv for this screen cap.
Nearly all the problems I highlighted about the Russian plan below has been mitigated.
Read carefully.
So first, let’s detail what this plan is. In short, it’s morally abhorrent, historically ignorant, and promotes nearly every single Russian demand - and more. The plan is vague, makes no concrete promises, and let’s not forget it was developed without the input of the victim of Russian aggression: Ukraine.
In addition, it’s quite obvious that the White House is looking to “end the war” at any cost, as well as to profit the likes of Witkoff, who stands to make a lot of money if this abortion of a plan comes to fruition.
Here it is, verbatim, with my comments in italics.
1. Ukraine’s sovereignty will be confirmed. This is not even up for debate. Ukraine has been a sovereign country for more than 30 years. This is a throwaway line and concept that is eroded in following points. In addition, the fact that this had to be stated indicates that the United States agrees with Russia that there were and are ambiguities in Ukraine’s sovereignty, despite the fact that Ukraine’s borders have been internationally recognized since 1991.
2. A comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered settled. What “ambiguities” would those be? The only “ambiguity” is Putin’s inability to withdraw his forces from a country he invaded and whose territory he illegally annexed. Putin never had a problem with former Soviet and Warsaw Pact states joining NATO, but all of a sudden this is a big deal? There’s no ambiguity here except the fact that Moscow lies, obfuscates, issues false accusations, and moves goalposts to justify its aggression against its neighbor. There are no ambiguities here. Russia invaded its peaceful neighbor starting in 2014 and has been stealing its territories.
3. It is expected that Russia will not invade neighboring countries and NATO will not expand further. The use of passive voice is instructive here. Who expects that Russia will not invade neighboring countries? Certainly, based on historical precedent and Russia’s continued warfare—hybrid and conventional—against its neighbors, neither the White House, nor Kyiv could possibly expect Moscow to remain peaceful! The use of passive voice here indicates that not a single person involved in this surrender pact expects Russia to abide by that promise. As for NATO expanding, I would submit that had Russia not been engaging in aggression against its neighbors, countries such as Finland and Sweden would not have quickly opted to join the alliance after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. And given that Ukraine had remained neutral and had no desire to join NATO until Moscow increased its aggression, there’s only one person to blame for NATO expansion - Vladimir Putin.
4. A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation in order to ensure global security and increase opportunities for cooperation and future economic development. Oh, here we go! First of all, this assumes that the United States is somehow a neutral party in these negotiations and not a full-fledged NATO member. And since Moscow continues to engage in hybrid warfare against NATO allies, the United States is not a neutral party. But then there’s the mention of “future economic development.” Interesting. This plan includes a US idea for using frozen Russian assets for US-led reconstruction efforts once a truce has been agreed, giving the United States “50 percent” of the profit from this activity. Anyone remember what Witkoff’s actual career involves? He’s real estate developer, investor, and founder of the Witkoff Group. Care to guess whom this plan would benefit?
The next four points deal with Ukraine’s sovereignty, and by that I mean, the country’s ability to defend itself from further aggression—a critical feature of sovereignty.
5. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees. What guarantees? What does “reliable” mean? No one knows. But the plan also ensures that Ukraine’s ability to defend its country and its citizens from further Russian aggression, in which Moscow “is expected” not to engage will be limited.
6. The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel. This is compared to about 900,000 troops right now, significantly weakening Ukraine’s defenses.
7. Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.
8. NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine.
As a sovereign country, Ukraine should decide for itself how to shore up its national security and defenses. Neither Russia nor the Trump administration should ever have the power to dictate to a sovereign nation how it can or cannot defend itself, especially with an aggressor on its doorstep. And certainly giving Putin the ability to dictate to NATO where it can and cannot station troops is undermining the alliance and its mission.
9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland. This bit was agreed to without ever consulting the EU or Poland. Gee, thanks! A US plan that obligates the EU to station its military assets in a European country without getting authorization from anyone involved, but taking credit for defending Ukraine somehow. 🙄
10. The U.S. guarantee:
— The U.S. will receive compensation for the guarantee;
— If Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantee;
— If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reinstated, recognition of the new territory and all other benefits of this deal will be revoked;
— If Ukraine launches a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg without cause, the security guarantee will be deemed invalid.
There are no details of what this US “guarantee” entails. The White House wants money for this vague “guarantee” and threatens to revoke it if either side attacks one another. What does that mean? The Trump administration is looking to bar Ukraine from ever joining NATO, while claiming some vague “guarantees” to protect Ukraine.
This sounds like another Budapest Memorandum, in which signatories promised to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity and inviolability of its borders, and to refrain from the use or threat of military force. Russia violated the Budapest Memorandum, and no one did anything about it. Why in the world would Ukraine trust anyone to “guarantee” its sovereignty and territorial integrity, especially since this plan was developed without its actual inputs?
11. Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market while this issue is being considered. Again, the EU wasn’t consulted on this point or any other. Ukraine was already seeking EU integration, and the EU agreed to set the country on its path that doesn’t require Russia’s permission nor the authorization of the United States. This is a garbage throwaway statement that has nothing to do with Russia or the United States. The Ukrainian people overwhelmingly wanted a closer relationship with the EU, and the Maidan protests began precisely because Russian stooge Viktor Yanukovych had suddenly U-turned from signing the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement and decided to turn Ukraine toward Russia instead.
12. A powerful global package of measures to rebuild Ukraine, including but not limited to:
— The creation of a Ukraine Development Fund to invest in fast-growing industries, including technology, data centers, and artificial intelligence.
— The United States will cooperate with Ukraine to jointly rebuild, develop, modernize, and operate Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities.
— Joint efforts to rehabilitate war-affected areas for the restoration, reconstruction and modernization of cities and residential areas.
— Infrastructure development.
— Extraction of minerals and natural resources.
— The World Bank will develop a special financing package to accelerate these efforts.
Again, does anyone else see the immense economic benefits to the members of the current administration? This plan is simply a way for the United States to dip its paws into Ukraine’s economic goodies. Not that aid wouldn’t be necessary or appreciated, but who would be involved? What kind of profits would they reap? What kind of conflicts of interest exist here, especially with the involvement of Witkoff, Trump, and the tech bros who have glommed onto this administration?
13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy:
— The lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon in stages and on a case-by-case basis.
— The United States will enter into a long-term economic cooperation agreement for mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centers, rare earth metal extraction projects in the Arctic, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities.
— Russia will be invited to rejoin the G8.
Again, here we see the United States looking to reintegrate an aggressor war-criminal state into the global economic structures that largely will benefit the United States. And given Russia’s cozy relationship with Iran and Hizballah—a US-designated foreign terrorist organization—this becomes a huge opportunity for Putin to get more money to funnel to its terrorist friends. If the Trump administration’s major foreign policy objective is to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, it might want to reel its pal Putin in, instead of financially rewarding him for the torture, rape, kidnapping, and mass-murder of innocent people.
14. Frozen funds will be used as follows:
— $100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine;
— The US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture. Europe will add $100 billion to increase the amount of investment available for Ukraine’s reconstruction. Frozen European funds will be unfrozen. The remainder of the frozen Russian funds will be invested in a separate US-Russian investment vehicle that will implement joint projects in specific areas. This fund will be aimed at strengthening relations and increasing common interests to create a strong incentive not to return to conflict.
See above. Most Russian frozen assets—roughly $300 billion—are in Europe, not the United States, which by recent estimates holds about $5 billion - maybe a bit more. But Trump wants to seize the assets Euroclear holds and “invest” that money in rebuilding Ukraine, subsequently grabbing half of the profits, so it can make people like Witkoff a handy profit.
15. A joint American-Russian working group on security issues will be established to promote and ensure compliance with all provisions of this agreement. Russia will be involved in ensuring compliance with the terms of ending a war Moscow itself has started? Really? I’m reading this sentence over and over again, and I cannot decide whether the Trump administration is stupid or an active Russian asset!
16. Russia will enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine. Yeah, that worked really well the last time. Here’s where I once again refer to the aforementioned Budapest Memorandum, which the Russians twisted into denying any security assurances for Ukraine and claiming that the document only referred to any nuclear attack on the country, as well as Minsk, which provided for the implementation of a ceasefire after the Russians invaded and illegally annexed Crimea; the withdrawal of illegal military equipment and personnel from Ukraine; the launch of a decentralization process in the separatist regions; the organization of early local elections; the release of illegally detained persons; and the adoption of an amnesty law.
Wait… do all these things sound familiar?
17. The United States and Russia will agree to extend the validity of treaties on the non-proliferation and control of nuclear weapons, including the START I Treaty. OK, not that I trust the Russians on these issues.
18. Ukraine agrees to be a non-nuclear state in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Budapest all over again with vague assurances or guarantees.
19. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will be launched under the supervision of the IAEA (the International Atomic Energy Agency), and the electricity produced will be distributed equally between Russia and Ukraine — 50:50. Zaporizhzhia is in Ukraine. It belongs to Ukraine, but Trump and Witkoff want to give away 50 percent of it to the Russians, who not only invaded it, but also caused it to lose power and caused serious safety concerns. And Russia is using the nuclear site as a bargaining chip to get what it wants out of this war. Trump just wants to hand half the product to the Russians for no reason.
20. Both countries undertake to implement educational programs in schools and society aimed at promoting understanding and tolerance of different cultures and eliminating racism and prejudice:
— Ukraine will adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and the protection of linguistic minorities.
— Both countries will agree to abolish all discriminatory measures and guarantee the rights of Ukrainian and Russian media and education.
— All Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and prohibited.
This is directly out of the Kremlin playbook. The point concedes that somehow Ukraine is full of Nazis and is victimizing poor Russians and aims to FORCE Ukraine—a country that was invaded and bombed, whose territory was stolen, whose children were kidnapped, and whose citizens were forced to Russify or leave—to “tolerate” the invaders. At the same time, it absolves Russia of all responsibility.
And please, let’s not get into attacks on Christianity here! As I wrote previously, the list of Russia’s violations—especially on religious holidays—is lengthy, including a Christmas “ceasefire” in 2016; another Christmas “ceasefire” the following year, during which Ukrainian soldiers were fired upon three times on the first day; the “New Year-Christmas Ceasefire” in 2018, during which Russian-backed forces shelled Ukrainian positions six times on the first day; and a supposed ceasefire for Orthodox Christmas on January 5, 2023, which was followed by Russian shelling in Kherson and Kurakhove the very next day.
Are there fascists, neo-Nazis and other such scum in Ukraine? Yes. We also have them here, but no one is invading us to denazify our country. The Azov brigade in Ukraine was founded on the premise that the country had to be cleansed of Jews. These days, however, Azov personnel have proven to be ardent fighters for Ukraine’s independence against Russia, and the United States last year lifted an existing ban on providing weapons and training to the Azov fighters.
What will happen there? Who knows? I cannot imagine neo-Nazis will have any kind of power in Ukraine, especially given the fact that the country elected a Jewish president!
Certainly, Kyiv must ensure that neo-Nazis never have any power there, but including this messaging in this “peace” plan is giving credibility to the Russians’ initial claim of “denazifying” Ukraine.
21. Territories:
— Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognized as de facto Russian, including by the United States.
— Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de facto recognition along the line of contact.
— Russia will relinquish other agreed territories it controls outside the five regions.
— Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast that they currently control, and this withdrawal zone will be considered a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarized zone.
22. After agreeing on future territorial arrangements, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force. Any security guarantees will not apply in the event of a breach of this commitment.
So, the Trump administration wants to reward Russia by giving it not just the territories it has invaded and illegally annexed, but also territories it cannot seem to capture despite three years of sending young people from Russia and trafficked from elsewhere (Cuba, Nepal, India, Kenya, and Central Asia, just to name a few). This is complete capitulation to the Russians, making the United States look pathetic and weak. Again, who benefits?
23. Russia will not prevent Ukraine from using the Dnieper River for commercial activities, and agreements will be reached on the free transport of grain across the Black Sea. This is made to sound like a Russian concession, but in reality, the Dnipro River is a death trap for the Russians, according to the Independent, with more than 5,000 Russian troops having perished in that region since the start of this year alone. The Russians cannot prevent Ukraine from using the Dnipro, so it’s not a concession, and these “agreements” are nebulous and say nothing about the continued Russian theft of Ukrainian grain.
24. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve outstanding issues:
— All remaining prisoners and bodies will be exchanged on an ‘all for all’ basis.
— All civilian detainees and hostages will be returned, including children.
— A family reunification program will be implemented.
— Measures will be taken to alleviate the suffering of the victims of the conflict.
Who will participate in this humanitarian committee? Will the thousands of kidnapped Ukrainian children be returned? What kind of “measures” can alleviate suffering of thousands of families who lost their loved ones, children murdered, toddlers raped to death, hospitals, homes, and schools destroyed?
25. Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days. Again, this is a matter of Ukrainian sovereignty. Per the country’s constitution, Ukraine cannot hold elections during wartime. Zelensky was legally elected, but the Kremlin insists that somehow he’s an illegitimate leader, because the country has not held its regularly scheduled elections yet. Neither Russia nor the United States has any right to dictate to Ukraine when it should hold elections, especially since Russia and its political stooges lack any significant support in Ukraine, so a destabilized, hurting Ukraine after nearly four years of Russian destruction benefits the Kremlin, as it will almost certainly work to undermine Ukraine’s election infrastructure and use every tool at its disposal to promote its candidates.
26. All parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree not to make any claims or consider any complaints in the future. This is one of the most absolutely repugnant, sickest things about this plan. No wonder it’s the last substantive issue on the menu! The White House no doubt hopes that readers will be so exhausted with the firehose of nonsense in the previous points, that they will overlook this twisted requirement. Putin is an indicted war criminal for kidnapping thousands of “children taken from orphanages and children’s care homes”—a violation of the Geneva Conventions and a war crime. The Russians have been literally trafficking Ukrainian kids, putting their profiles on the internet like cattle! Russia has deliberately targeted civilian infrastructure, including a hospital for children with cancer. Ukrainian children have been raped, tortured and illegally confined, according to a UN panel of independent legal experts. “In the cases we have investigated, the age of victims of sexual and gendered-based violence ranged from 4 to 82 years,” the experts said. What kind of filthy savages rape a four-year old? Civilian homes, schools, and hospitals have been deliberately targeted.
This is what Trump and Witkoff want to give Putin a free pass on! Mass murder, the destruction of churches and heritage sites, rape, and torture. They are fully aware of the carnage and savagery in which Russia has engaged since the full-scale invasion started, and it certainly looks like they want to give the Kremlin a get-out-of-jail-free card.
This alleged “peace plan” is a love letter to Russia, rewarding it for its sadism, allowing atrocities to stand, and even giving concessions which Russia did not even demand!
Newt Gingrich was right two days ago when he said that this is a surrender to the Russians.
Although, I disagree that this plan is about Americans growing tired of stopping evil. This plan is about giving Witkoff and his buddies economic advantages, nothing more, nothing less.
27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by the Peace Council, headed by President Donald J. Trump. Sanctions will be imposed for violations.
28. Once all parties agree to this memorandum, the ceasefire will take effect immediately after both sides retreat to agreed points to begin implementation of the agreement.
Oh, threatening sanctions on any party that violates this plan? How long has Trump been threatening crippling sanctions against Russia and then backing away like a bully confronted by a strong victim? Spare us the empty threats. 😵💫
This sounds like the result if Munich 1938 and the Versailles Treaty of 1918 got together and created a bastard child.
It's interesting how you approach this. So glad you're recovering! Your analysis is vital.