Last Week's NATO Summit
Some progress; some hot air
Note: If you’re hoping to find my take on the Trump assassination attempt yesterday, keep moving. It hasn’t even been 24 hours yet, and some of the hot takes are… special. I may not be a genius, but I’m smart enough to know that the vast majority of reports coming out right now are wrong.
So what is going on?
Well, NATO leaders met in Washington DC last week to commemorate 75 years of the alliance. Twelve countries signed the North Atlantic Treaty in DC 75 years ago to ensure their collective defense. This year, 32 members met, with Finland and Sweden having joined after Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Turns out that Russian president Putin is the best NATO salesman in the world, having prompted two current members who previously had little interest in joining the alliance to immediately seek membership after his full-scale invasion of Russia’s neighbor.
The result of last week’s summit? There’s the Washington Summit Declaration.
The alliance reaffirmed its commitment to collective security through NATO’s Article 5 collective security guarantee.
The alliance also officially welcomed new member Sweden and reaffirmed NATO’s commitment to its Open Door Policy, in line with Article 10 of the Washington Treaty. I see this as a pointed message to Putin and any other country that dares threaten its neighbors. NATO will welcome with open arms any nation that wants to contribute to the collective security of the alliance in exchange for collective security guarantees.
The Declaration openly and directly pointed to Russia as a direct threat to Allies’ security, and the relationship between Russia and China as a “concern.” Yes, the Alliance recognizes hybrid, cyber, space, and other threats and malicious activities from state and non-state actors. But most of the response is more “planning.”
We will continue to prepare for, deter, defend against, and counter hybrid threats and challenges. We reiterate that hybrid operations against Allies could reach the level of an armed attack and could lead the North Atlantic Council to invoke Article 5 of the Washington Treaty.
There have been numerous attacks and provocations by Russia in recent years, and yet, Article 5 or even Article 4 consultations have not been invoked.
The United States and Germany this year have stopped a Russian assassination plot against the head of Germany’s Rheinmetall that has been producing artillery shells and military vehicles for Ukraine. The plot was one of several to assassinate defense industry executives across Europe who were supporting Ukraine’s war effort. No calls for Article 5.
During the past six months, Polish authorities have arrested 18 people on suspicions of pursuing hostile activities or sabotage in collaboration with Russia or Belarus, according to the Polish Interior Ministry. Russia has apparently been involved in arsons or attempted arsons at a warehouse in England, a paint factory in Poland, homes in Latvia, and an Ikea store in Lithuania. No Article 5.
A cruise missile violated Polish airspace in December 2023 for about three minutes, and another one did the same thing in March 2024 for 39 seconds. The remains of a KH-55 missile were found near the Polish city of Bydgoszcz in April 2023. NATO fighters intercepted Russian aircraft more than 300 times in 2023, mostly in the Baltic but also in the Black Sea region, often with transponders turned off. No Article 5.
NATO apparently would rather consider these incidents as either “mistakes” or business as usual. Preparing, planning, and deterring is great, but NATO needs to show strength in the face of constant Russian attacks and provocations. Messaging increases in defense spending is also effective. Russia was pushing its “huge” state armaments program” in 2011, likely as a way to flex its muscles. But the attacks are already happening! Recognizing them is one thing, but definitive actions speak louder than words and braggadocio.
Defense expenditure by non-US allies has grown by 18 percent in 2024—the biggest increase in decades. They are also investing more in modern capabilities, and increasing their contributions to NATO operations, missions, and activities. This is all great news. The United States has been asking allies to increase their defense spending for years, and Putin’s attack on Ukraine prompted them finally to do so.
Ukraine
The alliance once again recognized that “a strong, independent, and democratic Ukraine is vital for the security and stability of the Euro-Atlantic area. Ukraine’s fight for its independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders directly contributes to Euro-Atlantic security. We welcome announcements by Allies to provide Ukraine with critical additional air defence systems as well as other military capabilities.”
This is a lot of pretty talk. The Alliance as a whole is not providing any defense capabilities to Ukraine; individual allies are. Although that’s terrific, what’s NATO doing as a whole? Certainly not inviting Ukraine to join. Not providing a membership action plan (MAP), even. But desperately trying to avoid conflict with Russia.
Decided to establish the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU) to coordinate the provision of military equipment and training for Ukraine by Allies and partners. Its aim is to place security assistance to Ukraine on an enduring footing, ensuring enhanced, predictable, and coherent support. NSATU, which will operate in Allied states, will support Ukraine’s self-defence in line with the UN Charter. NSATU will not, under international law, make NATO a party to the conflict. It will support the transformation of Ukraine’s defence and security forces, enabling its further integration with NATO.
I fully understand why the Alliance is not inviting Ukraine in right now. The fear is that Kyiv will invoke the Article 5 collective security guarantee as soon as the membership agreement is signed, dragging NATO allies into a hot war with Russia. And Ukraine has a lot of reforms and rebuilding to do before it becomes a full-fledged member.
On the other hand, as I wrote last year…
Throughout this war, Ukrainian armed forces have learned how to fight, how to operate western equipment, how to use intelligence effectively. They have become the bulwark against Russian aggression, protecting the West against what would almost certainly be another Russian advance, if Moscow succeeds in destroying Ukraine. This is not the Ukrainian military from 2014, which basically just threw down its weapons, took off their uniforms, and invited the Russian “little green men” to come on in and illegally occupy Crimea for promises of a Russian salary. This is not the same Ukraine whose military officers stole equipment and land and auctioned it off to the highest bidder.
NATO in its declaration included language affirming Ukraine’s “irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership.” The Alliance also reaffirmed that it will extend an invitation to Ukraine to join when Allies agree and conditions are met.
When Allies agree? Hungary is an “ally” - one that delayed Sweden’s NATO membership for months. Türkiye is also an “ally” - one that petulantly demanded concessions from the two countries before approving the move for NATO membership. Türkiye delayed Sweden’s membership request for nearly two years!
At the very least, NATO did issue a Pledge of Long-Term Security Assistance for Ukraine, which includes the intent to provide a minimum baseline funding of €40 billion within the next year, as well as “sustainable levels of security assistance for Ukraine to prevail.”
Although the baseline is not a small amount, Russia has intensified its all-out destruction against Ukraine’s civilians, and what Ukraine needs is more than just promises of money.
Russia has been bombing hospitals, including a children’s hospital in Kyiv. The Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital was one of three separate Ukrainian medical facilities to be struck by Russian missiles on July 8.
Since the full-scale invasion began, Russia has targeted more than 1400 Ukrainian healthcare facilities, damaged or destroyed 742 hospitals and clinics in those attacks, and murdered 210 health care workers.
Just this weekend, Russia murdered five civilians in Kharkiv, with one missile attack carried out after emergency services had arrived at the scene of an earlier attack. A police officer and an emergency rescue official were killed in that second strike in the village of Budy.
Not only is Russia targeting civilians and medical infrastructure, Moscow is also murdering first responders.
Ukraine's envoy to international organizations in Vienna said recently that 97 percent—that’s right, 97 PERCENT—of Russian missiles, drones, and guided bombs have hit civilian infrastructure. So although words of affirmation of support are nice, the Ukrainian people cannot wait.
They cannot wait for equipment to be purchased.
They cannot wait for much-needed donations.
They cannot wait for their troops to be trained.
And they cannot wait for contributions to NATO’s Trust Funds for Ukraine.
What Ukraine needs right now is authorization to strike back at Russia. Ukraine at the NATO summit had planned to pressure the United States to end its restrictions on using US-supplied weapons in Russian territory.
Ukraine has asked the White House to lift the long-range missile restrictions for months — in multiple meetings and in phone calls with senior leaders of the administration, a senior adviser to Zelenskyy’s office said. But the U.S. has held off, fearful that a strike deep inside Russia would provoke Russian President Vladimir Putin to escalate the war.
The United States gave Ukraine limited permission to fire US weapons into Russia, but only in the area of Kharkiv, and only so it could hit Russian forces just over the border if they were preparing to strike Ukraine. Launching long-range missiles to hit military targets deep inside Russia was and continues to be a “No.”
It doesn’t matter how many Ukrainians Putin murders. It doesn’t matter how many schools, hospitals, apartment buildings, and energy infrastructures Russia destroys. It doesn’t matter how many war crimes Russia commits. The fear of direct engagement with Russia remains.
When the White House last week was asked whether Ukraine could use Western weapons to attack all military bases in Russia in response to the Okhmatdyt attack, the response was that “Joe Biden's position had not changed,” according to Deputy Chief Editor of German publication BILD Paul Ronzheimer on X. This is shameful and embarrassing, no matter how many promises and flowery words of commitment NATO throws.
LOTS of hot air... NATO needs to slap down the constant Russian attacks and provocations with the use of force. That is ALL they understand. When NATO starts splashing those 'provocations' that cross the line, even for a few seconds, the Rus will pull back in a hurry. Re the training unit, that is two years too late! The exchange of aid from the US was stalled by the Dems pandering and who knows how many Ukrainians died because of it... sigh