Like George Will has said about such military maneuvers: “Now what?”
I’m glad the Iranian bad guys are annihilated. I’m encouraged that the Iranian people are motivated to change the trajectory of their country, which presents better scenarios than those in Iraq and certainly Afghanistan.
But this whole change will be ugly and chaotic — count on it. Will it be worth it? If the West becomes safer? Yes.
Now, can we put the bullshit about Israel manipulating the attacks to rest?
I have one question, but I am not exactly sure how to state it...
"Now what?" We just went in and pretty much decapitated the leadership of Iran. Do we just kick back and see what happens?
"How does this make things 'better'"? Donald Trump just created a "Martyr" by killing the Supreme Burrito.
"Why Now?" 'Operation Epic Fury' was almost immediately renamed 'Operation Epstein Fury' because Trump needed a change in scenery because some shit is about to come out that doesn't make him look good at all. He needed to change the subject quick, fast, and in a hurry.
I've seen the copies of the unredacted 302s. It does not look good for the DOJ, nor does it look good for Trump.
I think the expectation is that after a few weeks of bombing anything that looks like a drone, a missile or an IRGC/Basij grouping the Iranian people will kill the rest of them. Whether Iran can then form a stable government is a whole different question, but I'm pretty sure they won't be making more missiles (nuclear or otherwise) or exporting more terrorists, which looks to me like the desired end state.
I am quite certain the Trump administration is utterly uninterested in having US troops involved in rebuilding the rubble, though I expect he'll provide some kind of incentives for an Iranian government that behaves
Regarding the willingness to not continue to enrich uranium - Marc Caputo of Axios says that the US team told him that the Iranians explicitly refused to stop enrichment and that was one of the reasons the talks failed - see this Xitter thread and related media links
There have been conflicting reports from Oman, etc. about what Tehran was offering. My original comment had a big “Maybe” in it.
As for Putin, I would NEVER be overly pessimistic. If there’s a tiny opening, he’ll take it. He has been and will continue to work with Hizballah. He has and continues to support the hardline regimes in Iran. And if he can develop close ties with the successors or install a buddy of his own, he will.
Putin historically thrives on and exploits vulnerabilities in countries important to Russia.
Ahhh so tricky to support violent regime change in violation of the Geneva Convention and 70 years of international agreement about respecting the territorial integrity of sovereign states. Which nation is going to rid America of its corrupt, criminal and oppressive president? I hope Israel is asking the same question about Netanyahu.
Like George Will has said about such military maneuvers: “Now what?”
I’m glad the Iranian bad guys are annihilated. I’m encouraged that the Iranian people are motivated to change the trajectory of their country, which presents better scenarios than those in Iraq and certainly Afghanistan.
But this whole change will be ugly and chaotic — count on it. Will it be worth it? If the West becomes safer? Yes.
Now, can we put the bullshit about Israel manipulating the attacks to rest?
I have one question, but I am not exactly sure how to state it...
"Now what?" We just went in and pretty much decapitated the leadership of Iran. Do we just kick back and see what happens?
"How does this make things 'better'"? Donald Trump just created a "Martyr" by killing the Supreme Burrito.
"Why Now?" 'Operation Epic Fury' was almost immediately renamed 'Operation Epstein Fury' because Trump needed a change in scenery because some shit is about to come out that doesn't make him look good at all. He needed to change the subject quick, fast, and in a hurry.
I've seen the copies of the unredacted 302s. It does not look good for the DOJ, nor does it look good for Trump.
My thoughts exactly. There doesn’t seem to be any kind of an off-ramp or thought about stabilizing the region.
I think the expectation is that after a few weeks of bombing anything that looks like a drone, a missile or an IRGC/Basij grouping the Iranian people will kill the rest of them. Whether Iran can then form a stable government is a whole different question, but I'm pretty sure they won't be making more missiles (nuclear or otherwise) or exporting more terrorists, which looks to me like the desired end state.
I am quite certain the Trump administration is utterly uninterested in having US troops involved in rebuilding the rubble, though I expect he'll provide some kind of incentives for an Iranian government that behaves
I haven’t seen anything even intimating that there’s any kind of plan. I’m not in the habit of making such huge analytical leaps.
The Guardian Council is operating, and the designated jurist is a scumbag with technical knowledge.
We would be smart to temper our expectations.
I think you are being overly pessimistic regarding Putin taking advantage as I explain in the middle of this post of mine (https://ombreolivier.substack.com/p/the-great-miscalculation?r=7yrqz ) which links to yours.
Regarding the willingness to not continue to enrich uranium - Marc Caputo of Axios says that the US team told him that the Iranians explicitly refused to stop enrichment and that was one of the reasons the talks failed - see this Xitter thread and related media links
https://x.com/MarcACaputo/status/2028220622136823902
There have been conflicting reports from Oman, etc. about what Tehran was offering. My original comment had a big “Maybe” in it.
As for Putin, I would NEVER be overly pessimistic. If there’s a tiny opening, he’ll take it. He has been and will continue to work with Hizballah. He has and continues to support the hardline regimes in Iran. And if he can develop close ties with the successors or install a buddy of his own, he will.
Putin historically thrives on and exploits vulnerabilities in countries important to Russia.
https://cathropbriefs.substack.com/p/killing-proliferation?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=6m9r28
Ahhh so tricky to support violent regime change in violation of the Geneva Convention and 70 years of international agreement about respecting the territorial integrity of sovereign states. Which nation is going to rid America of its corrupt, criminal and oppressive president? I hope Israel is asking the same question about Netanyahu.
Yes, all great and important legal points! (More on my substack if interested :) )