All Eyes on Russia (UPDATED)
All Eyes on Russia (UPDATED)
Putin Ready to Recognize Separatist Republics
UPDATE: Putin has recognized the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, providing Russia justification to invade those areas and use the separatist fighters as proxies to annex more Ukrainian land.
UPDATE #2: As predicted, as soon as Putin recognized Donetsk and Luhansk, he sent troops into the Ukrainian territory under the guise of “peacekeeping.”
It was not immediately certain whether the Russian troops would remain only on the territory controlled by the separatist republics, or whether they would seek to capture the rest of the two Ukrainian regions whose territory they claim.
And so it was unclear if a long-feared Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine had begun. The separatists might have invited Russian forces in, but neither Ukraine nor the rest of the world views the so-called republics as anything but Ukrainian territory.
Ultimately, such technicalities should not matter. Russia has recognized two regions that legally belong to Ukraine as independent republics and has sent troops into those regions that legally belong to Ukraine. This is an invasion, and severe consequences that have been promised for months should now happen.
All eyes have been on Russia and its buildup of nearly 200,000 troops on the border with Ukraine for several months now, with the West assessing that an outright invasion could come any time.
Russia has been engaging in its usual disinformation campaigns, painting Moscow as a victim of an aggressive Kyiv, and blaming the United States and our western allies for pulling the strings of Ukrainian leaders. This messaging is for internal purposes. No one with half a brain believes that Ukraine is somehow threatening the neighbor that has amassed troops on its border, has been funding and supporting separatists in the East, funneling money and weapons to the Donetsk and Luhansk (wannabe) republics, and has been engaging in cyber attacks against its neighbors. But the Kremlin needs this public record of its allegations to provide justification for its actions, and the separatists in the East are more than happy to provide “proof” of Ukraine’s aggression.
Never mind that the “proof” was recorded days prior to manufacture a refugee crisis, and that these poor people, who do not have any resources to escape the carnage, had to hide out in the basement of a bombed out local school.
Moscow has claimed that it pulled troops back from the border, but that is apparently a bunch of hot garbage.
My sense has always been that Putin is trying to push the West into action before he makes an outright incursion into Ukraine. That way the Kremlin can claim that the West initiated the aggression, and they’re simply responding. But in the United States, despite a significant push from some to impose sanctions now—before an actual invasion happens—cooler heads have prevailed so far.
Sanctions will be a reaction to Russia’s invasion, not a justification for it.
Today, however, things got interesting. The Russian security council met today to discuss the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, and whether to recognize them as independent republics. Putin says he will make a decision about whether to do so today.
Recognizing the Donetsk and Luhansk republics would not only be a violation of Minsk II agreements, but also of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, since the two separatist-dominated republics are legally part of that country.
In addition, it is quite hypocritical of Russia, which still has not recognized Kosovo as an independent state and was so petty last year as to try (unsuccessfully) to ban the Kosovo representative from speaking at the UN Security Council, with Kosovo’s flag in the background.
So why would Russia want to recognize the two republics?
Because once the DPR and LPR are recognized, Russia has justificaation to send weapons, troops, and other support to those regions. Once that military support is provided, the breakaway republics can be exploited as proxies for Russia’s invasion, giving Russia justification to claim that it did not, technically, invade Ukraine, but merely supported allies in independent republics (that only Moscow recognizes).
The United States has prepared a package of sanctions that the Biden administration is ready to use should Russia invade. The measures would cut the correspondent banking relationships between targeted Russian banks and US banks that enable international payments. But does the administration’s definition of “invasion” include support to the DPR and LPR and exploitation of those separatist fighters as proxy troops for an invasion?
Is this what President Biden meant as a “minor incursion?”
Biden has tried to mop up that mess by claiming that “If any — any — assembled Russian units move across the Ukrainian border, that is an invasion ... It would be met with severe and coordinated economic response.”
But does that include Russian support of the breakaway republics it would recognize as independent?
Is Putin hoping that the use of separatist proxies to forcibly annex pieces of its neighbor will give it enough technical deniability to avoid the most severe US sanctions?
I have never been a fan of the reactionary use of US sanctions to punish Russia’s provocations, but I would submit that the formal recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” justifies US action.